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May 13, sponsored by the China Building and Sanitary Ceramics Association, Chongqing Yongchuan District People’s Government hosted the “China Building and Sanitary Ceramics 2021 Technology and Equipment Forum” held in Yongchuan. At the meeting, the China Building and Sanitary Ceramics Association on the global sanitary ceramics consumption prospects released a forecast report.
The report points out that in 2019, the global production of sanitary ceramics 450 million pieces, the total growth of the last decade reached 31%. Among them, Asia is 329 million pieces, Europe 69 million pieces, South America 15 million pieces, Africa 10 million pieces, Oceania 1 million pieces. In the global market, 2019 China’s production area reached 234 million pieces, accounting for about 70% of Asia’s production and about 50% of global production. Export outbound sales reached 96 million pieces, accounting for 60% of global exports of sanitary ceramics.
The report estimates that by 2025, the total global investment in sanitary ceramics will reach $26 billion. China market sanitary ceramics investment will reach 11 billion yuan. Asia outside of China is expected to be 5.5 billion yuan, Africa is expected to be 6.5 billion yuan, and other regions for 3 billion yuan (in RMB).
Market situation by region
European region
European sanitary ceramics consumption is mainly concentrated in the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey. The EU is the main import region, in 2019 the EU imported about 57 million pieces of sanitary ceramics, the import scale increased by 38% during the decade. The rest of Europe imported 5 million pieces of sanitary ceramics in 2019, and the number of imports continued to decrease. Analysis from the consumption capacity, the European region in 2019, the total consumption of sanitary ceramics is about 80 million pieces, is the world’s main sanitary ceramics consumption market.
North America
Production in North America is concentrated in the United States and Mexico. North America’s sanitary ceramics production area is the United States and Mexico, of which Mexico’s production in the region accounted for 85 percent. North America’s market conditions are relatively close to the European Union region, the consumption of stable growth is obvious. Among them, the steady increase in Mexico’s production ensures positive growth in North America.
North America imported more than 60 million pieces of sanitary ceramics in 2019, a 68% increase in the scale of imports over the decade. Compared with the EU, is more obvious sanitary ceramics net import region. 2019 North American sanitary ceramics consumption of about 63 million pieces, a ten-year growth of 46%, is the world’s major sanitary ceramics consumer market.
South America
South American production is concentrated in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina. These four regions gradually formed around their own brand enterprises, in addition to supplying local consumption, other countries in South America and North America’s export trade is also involved early. With the increase in local consumption as well as export trade, the region gradually changed its own sanitary products system. 2019 South America sanitary ceramics imports close to 10 million pieces, ten years of import scale growth of 73%. Although the total amount is not large, the growth rate is relatively fast, belonging to the sanitary ceramics import trade growth is relatively active in the region. 2019 South America sanitary ceramics consumption of about 19 million pieces, nearly ten years of growth of 36%, the amount of local production is stable, the number of imports from the Asian region continues to increase.
Africa region
Africa region is mainly concentrated in Egypt, South Africa, Tunisia. Pre-existing capacity is not large, international multinational enterprises to lay production, earlier with a certain capacity for the European market as well as a small part of the local consumption, in the field of sanitary ceramics global trade position is not prominent. Most other regions of Africa’s sanitary ceramics production is at a lower level. After entering the twenty-first century, sanitary ceramics consumption in Africa has grown further, with insufficient support from established production capacity and a significant increase in sanitary ceramics imports into the region.
In 2019, Africa’s sanitary ceramics imports close to 19 million pieces, the scale of imports grew 150% during the decade, the total amount of general, but the growth rate ranked first. It 5 years import growth is also more than 30%, is also the world’s fastest-growing import trade region, belongs to the sanitary ceramics import trade growth active region. 2019 Africa region consumption of about 25 million pieces, more than 80% growth in ten years, showing a strong consumption capacity.
Oceania region
Oceania’s main production area is Australia, the production time is early, the number has been small. With China and other sanitary ceramics production level and product cost performance changes, local production has been significantly reduced. At present, mainly through increased import trade to meet the stable consumer market. 2019 Oceania region imported more than 4 million pieces of sanitary ceramics. After ten years of import scale growth of more than 120%, the total amount is not large, but a large increase. 2019 Oceania sanitary ceramics consumption of more than 5 million pieces, a decade of growth of about 9%.
Asian region
Asia’s production, exports, consumption are ranked first in the world. Even imports are in the number one position globally, although not as far away from second place as production. China provides the world’s largest production capacity as well as the consumer market. 2019 Asia imported more than 60 million pieces of sanitary ceramics, a 130% increase in the scale of imports over the decade, close to the EU and North America in volume, and imports are significantly higher.
Asia is mainly concentrated in Japan, South Korea, China Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh. Among them, India, Vietnam in the past two decades of rapid development, production has exceeded 20 million pieces, become an important export market for sanitary ceramics exports of foreign trade output area.
Asian sanitary ceramics consumption in 2019 is about 254 million pieces, a decade of growth of about 34%. Among them, China’s consumption in 147 million pieces, a ten-year growth of more than 42%, showing a more robust regional sanitary ceramics consumption trend. This is the fastest-growing global consumption of sanitary ceramics.
African market consumption potential is huge
Annual compound growth will reach 13%
For the sanitary ceramics market, the application of the current situation and future health needs of sanitation, global sanitary ceramics consumption growth trend will be maintained for a considerable period of time. It is expected that by 2025, the global consumption of sanitary ceramics than in 2019 by more than 20%, compound annual growth of about 3.1%. The Africa region is the highest, which can be expected to reach more than 13%. Asia is in second place, with a compound annual growth rate of about 2.8%. The rest of the region has a compound annual growth rate of less than 2.0%. Overall, the next five years the world will maintain the trend of sanitary ceramics production capacity, Vietnam, India Africa’s growth rate will be higher will have a fixed incremental space.
According to the level of urbanization, can be divided into the following markets.
Mature market: urbanization rate of 70% or more
Growth markets: urbanization rate of 30% to 70%
Potential markets: urbanization rate of 30% or less
Mature markets
Europe, North and South America, Japan and South Korea, Australia and New Zealand region, Singapore and China’s Taiwan and other regions, most of which entered industrialization earlier, urban construction is basically sound, mature consumption. With the transfer of production capacity and other areas of sanitary ceramics production capacity, production is declining, but consumption is still steadily rising.
Most of the regions in mature markets have sanitary ceramics production base in the early days after a century or more of development. Sanitary ceramics companies are gradually becoming international multinationals. They set up factories in other parts of Europe and South America, North Africa, as well as Thailand, China, Vietnam, India, and other places in Asia to produce and sell, promote the culture of sanitary consumption, and guide the overall technology of local sanitary manufacturing to improve.
Potential markets
With the gradual realization of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, the potential market areas of income, employment gradually, urban construction expansion, rural sanitation gradually improve, the use of clean sanitation facilities more strongly willing. The consumption of sanitary ceramics will increase significantly in speed. Although the current consumption base is average, with the economic development, the future consumption of these regions with a very broad space.
It is expected that by 2025, Africa will exceed 50 million pieces of sanitary ceramics consumption in addition to traditional North Africa and South Africa and other places of sanitary ceramics production will continue to maintain stable development, other African regions will gradually introduce sanitary ceramic production lines, used to meet the incremental demand for tens of millions of pieces of the market.
The growth market has the basic system to improve sanitation facilities, gradually improve the quality of individual facilities, household sanitation facilities, and public sanitation space in phases. Overall, the consumption of sanitary ceramics in Asia is expected to approach 30,000,000 units by 2025.
By 2025
China’s sanitary ceramics investment will reach 11 billion yuan
The per capita labor productivity of China’s sanitary ceramics industry is about 350,000 yuan, which is a large gap compared to the level of the same industry in Japan and Europe. They need to start from mechanization, automation, and intelligence, build high-level production lines, and improve production efficiency. According to the incomplete survey results, China invested 1.31 billion RMB for the whole year in 2020. In the past five years, about 35 new production lines, the transformation of the old production line 45, the total investment in equipment reached 5.1 billion RMB. During the same period in other parts of the world, the sanitary ceramics new production lines and upgrade production lines, the investment amounted to about 4 billion yuan.
Currently, in the procurement of equipment as well as new production lines, the global scope of Europe and the United States, Japan, and South Korea, Australia, regional production capacity is declining trend. Most of the sanitary ceramics in these areas are operated by multinational companies. Considering the cost and resource factors, through international trade to adjust the supply structure, the chances of a new complete production line is unlikely. They generally meet the corresponding demand through the automation of the original old production lines.
Turkey has taken over the capacity space that emerged from the European supply and demand. Turkish sanitary ceramics industry insists on developing its own sanitary ceramics manufacturing and supporting capabilities, taking advantage of the location to obtain a large number of European orders. Moreover, enterprises to improve energy efficiency in production, new and upgraded production lines, achieved good results. Because Turkey itself kiln and high-pressure forming equipment manufacturing capacity is not strong, Italy and Germany as the representative of the European sanitary ceramics equipment can be applied.
Asia’s capacity to enhance the concentration in China, Vietnam, India, Qin also has a fixed production volume of accumulation. Thailand’s equipment from Europe a little more, Vietnam relatively more use of Chinese equipment. India, on the other hand, Europe and China’s equipment have different degrees of adoption of China’s regional investment in sanitary ceramics production. In addition to some international group companies, they basically use Chinese companies’ equipment.
It is expected that by 2025, the global investment in sanitary ceramics will reach a total of $ 26 billion. China’s market sanitary ceramics investment will reach 11 billion yuan, China outside of Asia is expected to be 5.5 billion yuan, Africa is expected to be 6.5 billion yuan, other regions for 3 billion yuan (RMB count). Among them, the Chinese region new line construction and expansion and expansion, the proportion of expansion gradually expanded. In Asia, new line construction is the main focus, with a small amount of renovation and expansion. Africa region, mainly new line construction. Other regions, mainly for renovation and expansion.