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Original Lin Xiaoxiong Chav Ua Noj Thiab Chav Dej Qhia
Nyob rau hnub tsis ntev los no, chav ua noj thiab chav dej kev lag luam lub ntsiab lus kub tshaj plaws tsis yog “Cov Khoom Siv Raw Khoom Siv”, suav nrog tus nqi tooj liab yog qhov tseeb tshwj xeeb. Lub Ob Hlis 25, Shanghai tooj liab lub ntsiab daim ntawv cog lus sawv ze li ntawm 4% tom qab qhib, ntawm 70,000 yuan / ton, thawj zaug txij lub Yim Hli 2011. Ntau tus neeg ua lag luam tau xa cov phooj ywg mus flirt, “lo lus nce nqi yog lus dag dhau lawm, yuav tsum hais: Nrog koj zoo siab! Koj xaiv ib yam dab tsi txaus siab, thiab tom kawg yuav txaus siab rau.”
“Tooj yog nrov, hlau qw, stainless hlau yog snickering, aluminium alloy yog luag, iav kuj bouncing, raw khoom nqi kub, qhov kev thov yav dhau los tsis raug, lub khw tsis muaj kev khuv xim tshuaj, tus nqi tau tag nrho messed. Spot yog tus huab tais tiag! Thov nug ua ntej tso qhov kev txiav txim, tus nqi ntawm lub hnub prevails.”
Tus nqi tooj liab nce li cas “nruj”? Qee qhov chaw lag luam tau hais tias hauv 2020, tooj liab tus nqi sawv ntawm 44,000 rau 58,000 yuan / ton, nrog 60 hnub; 2021, tooj liab tus nqi sawv ntawm 58,000 rau 70,000 yuan / ton, nrog nkaus xwb 6 hnub. Hauv lwm lo lus, los ntawm 2020 txog tam sim no ze li ib xyoos, tooj liab tus nqi nce ncaj qha los ntawm ze li ntawm 60% kom ncav cuag cov ntaub ntawv siab tshiab.
Tooj liab ua cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau cov khoom lag luam hauv chav ua noj thiab chav dej kev lag luam, nrog tus nqi tooj liab txuas ntxiv mus siab, yog khi ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam hauv chav ua noj thiab chav dej. Raws li chav ua noj cov ntaub ntawv xov xwm qhia tau kawm tias, ntxiv rau qhov nce ntawm tus nqi tooj liab, chav ua noj thiab chav dej khoom tsim nyog rau stainless hlau, aluminium thiab lwm yam khoom siv raw cov nqi kuj tau nce siab.
Tom qab qhov vwm nce ntawm tus nqi tooj liab
Yog li tooj liab thiab lwm yam khoom siv raw tom qab tus nqi nce, yog vim li cas?
Aoyo chav dej tus thawj coj Xie Wei hais rau chav ua noj thiab chav dej cov ntaub ntawv xov xwm, Tus nqi tooj liab tau nce feem ntau vim yog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve nyiaj txiag “dej”, ua rau muaj nyiaj ntau thoob ntiaj teb. Nrog rau kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb tau pib tswj tau zoo, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb pib rov zoo, tooj liab yog cov bullish investor ntau yam, yog li nws sawv ntau tshaj, tus nqi tsis xav kom siab tshaj tam sim no, tab sis qhov sawv lig yuav maj mam decelerate, Lwm qhov piv txwv yog aluminium, tus menyuam yaus, tin, zinc raw khoom, vim hais tias lub ntiaj teb no monetary easing tseem txuas ntxiv mus, lub sij hawm luv luv uas tsis yog-ferrous hlau phaj yog nyuaj rau poob sharply.
Cov neeg ua lag luam tooj liab uas tsis xav qhia tawm lawv cov npe rau cov ntaub ntawv xov xwm hauv chav ua noj, Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tso dej, hauv qab dej nyab, lub zog ntawm qhov nce siab heev. Thiab Tuam Tshoj yog lub chaw tsim khoom, rov qab muaj zog, kev siv cov khoom siv raw kuj muaj zog, yog li nyiaj txiag rau Suav teb.
Nws tuaj yeem pom tau tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov nyiaj tau dhau los ua rau lub ntiaj teb nyiaj txiag yooj yim., kev nce nqi; Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nrog rau kev txhawb nqa cov tshuaj tiv thaiv hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, kom tus kab mob sib kis tau maj mam tswj tau zoo, cov tub ua lag luam muaj kev cia siab ntau ntxiv txog kev lag luam tag nrho, uas yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw xws li tooj liab.
Chav ua noj thiab chav dej tuam txhab uas muag yuav ua li cas nrog cov “nqe hike”
Nyob rau hauv lub upstream tooj liab thiab lwm yam raw khoom nqi, chav ua noj thiab chav dej ua lag luam, cov nqi yuav khoom thiab cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm chav ua noj thiab chav dej yuav tsum nce ntxiv, yog tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw yuav nce ntxiv, tom qab ntawd cov chav ua noj thiab chav dej ua lag luam, nws yuav nyuaj nyuaj.
Xie Wei hais, rau cov khoom siv hauv chav ua noj thiab chav dej, cia siab tias yuav tau nce tus nqi. Tus nqi tooj liab tau nce ntau heev, faucets thiab lwm yam khoom tsis mus, vim tsis muaj profit margin. Yog li nws cia siab tias cov khoom siv hauv chav ua noj thiab chav dej hauv lub Plaub Hlis mus txog Tsib Hlis yuav muaj tus nqi tseem ceeb, tus nqi nce yuav nyob nruab nrab 5%-18%.
Raws li tam sim no dawb-kub kev lag luam kev sib tw ib puag ncig, cov khoom tus nqi profits zoo li pob tshab, ua ke nrog qhov nce vwm ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, kom cov chav ua noj thiab chav dej ua lag luam profits yog ze rau depletion, tus nqi khoom nce zoo li dhau los ua qhov tsim nyog pib.
Tus neeg ntawd tau hais tias tam sim no kuj tseem muaj ntau lub tuam txhab uas tau xa cov lus ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom kom nug cov lus hais ua ntej muab xaj., lawv tau hais ncaj tawm ntawm sab saum toj. Cov tuam txhab hauv chav ua noj thiab chav dej zoo tshaj plaws tuaj yeem sib tham nrog cov neeg siv khoom ntawm cov khoom siv tus nqi hloov pauv, cov khoom nce lossis nqis npaum li cas, ces kho tus nqi kom tsis txhob muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov khoom nqi nce, qee lub tuam txhab chav ua noj thiab chav dej tau ua haujlwm tiag tiag. Qee tus neeg sab hauv kev lag luam tau hais tias qhov kev txiav txim qub tsis nce nqi, kev txiav txim tshiab nug raws li hnub ntawm qhov kev thov.
Nws zoo nkaus li tias qhov kev txiav txim qub tus nqi nce tsis ntau dhau? Yog tias chav ua noj thiab chav dej ua lag luam yuav yog tus nqi ntawm cov khoom, Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum tau hloov mus rau hauv zos, thiab kev sib koom tes ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, nrhiav tus nqi sib npaug, yog tsis yog, nws tsis yog xav tsis thoob tias tus qub qub voided.
Ntxiv rau, nyob rau hauv chav ua noj thiab chav dej khoom nyob rau hauv txawv teb chaws exports, Xie Wei hais, txawm tias cov khoom xa tawm yuav cuam tshuam los ntawm cov khoom lag luam nce nqi, tag nrho kev lag luam sib yuav tsis hloov. Tom qab kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam rov qab los, tag nrho increment yuav tsum muaj. Tab sis qhov loj ntawm qhov increment tsis yooj yim hais, nws xav tias tom qab lub Tsib Hlis, tag nrho qhov kev cia siab yuav nce ntxiv, mus rau lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog kwv yees tias yog ib txoj kev loj hlob.
Tus neeg ntawd hais, tam sim no chav ua noj khoom xa tawm txawm tias cuam tshuam los ntawm kev txaus siab ntawm yuan, raw khoom nqi tau nce sharply, profit margins tau compressed, exports tsis muaj nyiaj ntau los khwv tau los yog marginal profits, lub chav ua noj khoom exports tseem yuav tsum tau ua.
Cov tooj liab thiab lwm yam khoom siv raw cov nqi ntawm qhov nce vwm txawm tias lub ntiaj teb chav ua noj npauj npaim nyhuv yog tsim nyog yuav tsum tau ceev faj., cov ntaub ntawv hauv chav ua noj kuj tseem yuav ua tib zoo mloog.
